Horse Racing Triple Crown
Stats Are Against Ky. Derby Winner in Both Preakness and Belmont
No horse has won the Triple Crown since Affirmed did it in 1978 and only 11 have ever won it in the last 89 years.
Horse racing’s Triple Crown is often called the toughest challenge in sports and it has hundreds of failures to back up that claim. Going into the 2008 races, no horse has won Louisville's Kentucky Derby, Baltimore's Preakness Stakes and New York's Belmont Stakes since 1978, a 29- year drought.
The Triple Crown is a tremendous challenge because:
- It often attracts not only America’s best three-year-old thoroughbreds but also outstanding horses from other nations.
- The three races are run within five weeks, a grueling schedule for the horses.
- The races cover three different distances: 1¼ mile in the Derby; 1 3/16 mile in the Preakness; and 1½ mile in the Belmont.
Belmont Stakes Was the First of the Triple Crown Races
The Belmont began in New York in 1867. The Preakness started at Baltimore’s Pimilco Race Course in 1873 and the Derby began at Louisville in 1875, completing the trio.
According to the National Museum of Racing, J. K. L. Ross’ Sir Barton, ridden by John Loftus, in 1919 became the first horse to win all three races. Until then no horse had even won two of the races. In those days it was tougher to move horses around the nation within a few weeks.
Since 1919, the same horse has won all three races only 11 times. That’s 12.4 percent of the 89 years and a much smaller percentage of the hundreds of horses who have tried.
168 Hall of Fame Horses Unable to Win Triple Crown
Seattle Slew in 1977 and Affirmed in 1978 were the last to win the Triple Crown. The other winners were Gallant Fox 1930; Omaha 1935; War Admiral 1937; Whirlaway 1941; Count Fleet 1943; Assault 1946; Citation 1948; and Secretariat in 1973.
Even legendary horses like Northern Dancer, Spectacular Bid and Alysheba and 165 other members of the Racing Hall of Fame did not win all three.
The Statistics Do Not Favor Triple Crown Chances
Fans looking for some statistical guidance in predicting winners may be interested in these numbers based on the 1919-through-2007 races:
- Thirty-one Kentucky Derby winners (34.8 percent) also won the Preakness.
- Eleven Kentucky Derby winners (12.4%) went on to win both the Preakness and Belmont.
- Twenty Derby winners (22.5%) won the Preakness, but did not win the Belmont.
- Twenty-two Derby winners (24.7%) also won the Belmont.
- 24 Preakness winners (26.9%) won the Belmont.
- Eleven horses, (12.4 %) won the Preakness and Belmont but not the Derby.
- In 34 years, a different horse won each of the three races. That’s 38%.
All three races are now limited to three-year-olds, meaning a horse never gets a second chance at the Triple Crown. Owners, trainers and jockeys often get more than one try, but they have had even less success winning all three races.
Belair, Calumet, Fitzsimmons, Jones and Arcaro Were Only Double Winners
Belair Stud with Gallant Fox in 1930 and Omaha in 1935 was the first stable to win the Triple Crown twice. Calumet Farm was the only other with Whirlaway in 1941 and Citation in 1948. Their trainers, Belair's James Fitzsimmons and Calumet's Ben Jones were also the only trainers to win two Triple Crowns. Even the fabled King’s Ranch won only once.
Calumet's Eddie Arcaro is the only jockey to ever win two Triple Crowns. He did it riding for Jones aboard Whirlaway and Citation. Since it has been 29 years since Lazaro Barrera won the last Triple Crown, Arcaro may hold that distinction a few more years.
In addition to the purses offered in the Derby, Preakness and Belmont, the Triple Crown winner gets a multimillion dollar bonus for winning all three races.
References: The National Museum of Racing (racingmusem.com),The New York Racing Association (nyra.com),Churchill Downs.com, Preakness.com,The Triple Crown Challenge.com
